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2008 NFL Predictions/2007 Prediction review
Posted on 2008.09.04 at 13:58
For the last few years I used to post this on MySpace. I no longer use that spam infested site. My predictions from last year (as documented below) were fairly accurate. In the AFC, I correctly picked every division winner but missed on both wild card entries (Jaguars and Titans). Record wise I was way off for the most part. I did nail the Texans however. In the NFC, I was way off for the most part. However, many of my comments next to each team were fairly accurate.
Time to try this again (* for playoff teams):
AFC East
*Patriots: 14-2 (They'll be about the same as last year, minus the whole undefeated thing.)
*Jets: 9-7 (One of the easiest schedules in the NFL + Favre should equal a playoff contender.)
Bills: 8-8 (Not on the Trent Edwards bandwagon but they've got talent. They need Peters back.)
Dolphins: 3-13 (They'll be improved on offense with Chad, but that D? Oy.)
AFC North (weakest division in AFC)
*Steelers: 11-5 (The o-line issues are a little overrated and their D is nasty.)
Browns: 8-8 (Not on their bandwagon. Their secondary will kill them.)
Ravens: 7-9 (If Lewis/Reed stay healthy, their D can carry the O to respectability.)
Bengals: 5-11 (WR injuries, o-line issues, and a weak D? Time to rebuild.)
AFC South (toughest division in AFC)
*Colts: 12-4 (Can their key guys- Freeney, Sanders, Manning, Harrison- return to form?)
*Jaguars: 11-5 (Scary good, but can they get home field or past the Colts, Bolts, or Pats?)
Titans: 8-8 (Maybe the best coached team in the league, but not a playoff team this year.)
Texans: 6-10 (Schaub's health and running game question marks. Give'em another year.)
AFC West
*Chargers: 12-4 (Can Gates or Merriman get through the season? I don't think so.)
Broncos: 9-7 (Have really underacheived and not sure that will change this year.)
Raiders: 5-11 (Any improvement over last year will be reason to celebrate.)
Chiefs: 3-13 (Year 1 of rebuilding. Larry Johnson will have little room to run.)
NFC East (toughest division in NFC as usual)
*Cowboys: 12-4 (Tougher sched but sick team. Just a matter of if they choke in the playoffs.)
*Eagles: 10-6 (If they stay healthy + 4th place sched. Otherwise expect riots.)
*Giants: 9-7 (If the O turns it up a notch for the D-line losses, they'll be ok.)
Redskins: 6-10 (New systems on both sides of the ball in a retooling year.)
NFC North
*Bears: 10-6 (I like Orton and if they stay healthy on D, look out.)
Packers: 9-7 (Too much talent on both sides of the ball to suddenly become a losing team.)
Lions: 7-9 (Some improvement but I don't see them as a playoff contender.)
Vikings: 5-11 (Teams figured out how to stop them at the end of last season.)
NFC South
*Saints: 11-5 (needed to get better on D, but didn't.)
Panthers: 9-7 (Can Delhomme stay healthy? Can they stop underacheiving?)
Buccanneers: 7-9 (Stayed the same for the worse. Should end the Garcia "era".)
Falcons: 3-13 (Matt Ryan and Michael Turner will be fun to watch at least.)
NFC West
*49ers: 9-7 (I don't know why I like them.)
Seahawks: 7-9 (Lame duck year for Holmgren and no running game.)
Cardinals: 6-10 (Same as last year- improving, but they're still the f-ing Cardinals.)
Rams: 5-11 (If Bulger stays healthy they can be respectable.)
2007 NFL Predictions
It's once again time to document my NFL predictions. It's stupid and no one is ever perfect. However, it's fun and also gives me proof to tell someone "I told you so!" if I'm right. Last year I was 4 out of 6 on AFC playoff teams (missed the Chargers/Ravens). As for the NFC, I was 4 out of 6 (missed the Eagles/Saints). I was dead on with a few teams (predicted the Chiefs would grab final wild card spot) but way off on others (predicted the Falcons would go 13-3 and win home field advantage...whoops!).
Over the years I've developed a "formula" as to how I make my predictions. Most of it is just based on the actual teams and how they are on paper. But there are several "facts" that happen EVERY year:
1. Approximately 2-3 teams who made the playoffs in each conference do not return the following year.
2. Approximately 1-2 teams in each conference who finished 6-10 or worse make the playoffs.
3. Some teams get better by staying the same- whether it's continuity, easier schedule, or returning injured players.
4. Some teams regress by staying the same (see 2006 Tampa Bay Buccaneers). Occasionally injuries play a part, but usually a team or two overacheived the year before and suddenly faces a much tougher schedule and didn't improve enough talent wise (or regressed).
So, with no further ado, here are my predictions (* for playoff teams):
AFC East
*Patriots: 11-5 (already starting year w/injuries and Moss questions, plus insane schedule)
Jets: 8-8 (overacheived last year, don't trust The Chad)
Bills: 6-10 (offense got better, defense really regressed w/FA losses)
Dolphins: 4-12 (Aging, but tough D, new offense & o-line issues- does not bode well)
AFC North
*Steelers: 10-6 (Big Ben is over the bike accident, strong D, easier schedule)
*Ravens: 9-7 (tough D, but did the offense actually improve w/McGahee?)
Bengals: 7-9 (O-line issues already, weak D)
Browns: 3-13 (need a complete overhaul on D, a year to season Quinn)
AFC South
*Colts: 11-5 (suffered way too many losses on D + Tarik Glenn, but still talented)
Texans: 8-8 (Sleeper team- improved offense, getting a lil better on D)
Jaguars: 8-8 (I have no idea what to expect from them- could shock the NFL this year)
Titans: 5-11 (Madden curse + issues on D + who's gonna run/catch the ball?)
AFC West (toughest division in AFC)
*Chargers: 13-3 (Norv is gonna work wonders with Rivers, D is just nasty)
*Broncos: 10-6 (Cutler will give them two more wins and they're on a mission from those two offseason deaths)
Chiefs: 6-10 (stayed about the same- for the worse, save for o-line losses)
Raiders: 5-11 (D was already decent, but playing under an actual pro offense w/a decent QB will make'em interesting)
NFC East
*Eagles: 11-5 (still class of division, but w/run D issues; need to stay healthy. Could slip big)
*Cowboys: 10-6 (lots of coaching turnover but lots of talent. Don't trust Wade or secondary; already injuries on D w/Newman and Ellis)
Redskins: 8-8 (healthy on D, easier schedule; no idea how offense will perform)
Giants: 6-10 (like the Jags, also damn near impossible to predict- could easily be 10-6)
NFC North
*Bears: 12-4 (Grossman will be better, still playing in a weak division)
Packers: 8-8 (could be a sleeper team)
Lions: 6-10 (offense is legit, D is not)
Vikings: 3-13 (Tavaris Jackson is NOT the answer at QB; nasty run D)
NFC South
*Saints: 11-5 (needed to get better on D, but didn't)
Panthers: 8-8 (no faith in Delhomme or Morgan staying healthy)
Buccanneers: 7-9 (they got a little better, can't be any worse than last year)
Falcons: 4-12 (those who think losing Vick will help forget how 2003 turned out)
NFC West
*Rams: 10-6 (if D gets better, watch out)
*49ers: 9-7 (loads of young talent on both sides of the ball, can it gel?)
Seahawks: 7-9 (could be way off on this)
Cardinals: 6-10 (improving, but they're still the f-ing Cardinals)
Time to try this again (* for playoff teams):
AFC East
*Patriots: 14-2 (They'll be about the same as last year, minus the whole undefeated thing.)
*Jets: 9-7 (One of the easiest schedules in the NFL + Favre should equal a playoff contender.)
Bills: 8-8 (Not on the Trent Edwards bandwagon but they've got talent. They need Peters back.)
Dolphins: 3-13 (They'll be improved on offense with Chad, but that D? Oy.)
AFC North (weakest division in AFC)
*Steelers: 11-5 (The o-line issues are a little overrated and their D is nasty.)
Browns: 8-8 (Not on their bandwagon. Their secondary will kill them.)
Ravens: 7-9 (If Lewis/Reed stay healthy, their D can carry the O to respectability.)
Bengals: 5-11 (WR injuries, o-line issues, and a weak D? Time to rebuild.)
AFC South (toughest division in AFC)
*Colts: 12-4 (Can their key guys- Freeney, Sanders, Manning, Harrison- return to form?)
*Jaguars: 11-5 (Scary good, but can they get home field or past the Colts, Bolts, or Pats?)
Titans: 8-8 (Maybe the best coached team in the league, but not a playoff team this year.)
Texans: 6-10 (Schaub's health and running game question marks. Give'em another year.)
AFC West
*Chargers: 12-4 (Can Gates or Merriman get through the season? I don't think so.)
Broncos: 9-7 (Have really underacheived and not sure that will change this year.)
Raiders: 5-11 (Any improvement over last year will be reason to celebrate.)
Chiefs: 3-13 (Year 1 of rebuilding. Larry Johnson will have little room to run.)
NFC East (toughest division in NFC as usual)
*Cowboys: 12-4 (Tougher sched but sick team. Just a matter of if they choke in the playoffs.)
*Eagles: 10-6 (If they stay healthy + 4th place sched. Otherwise expect riots.)
*Giants: 9-7 (If the O turns it up a notch for the D-line losses, they'll be ok.)
Redskins: 6-10 (New systems on both sides of the ball in a retooling year.)
NFC North
*Bears: 10-6 (I like Orton and if they stay healthy on D, look out.)
Packers: 9-7 (Too much talent on both sides of the ball to suddenly become a losing team.)
Lions: 7-9 (Some improvement but I don't see them as a playoff contender.)
Vikings: 5-11 (Teams figured out how to stop them at the end of last season.)
NFC South
*Saints: 11-5 (needed to get better on D, but didn't.)
Panthers: 9-7 (Can Delhomme stay healthy? Can they stop underacheiving?)
Buccanneers: 7-9 (Stayed the same for the worse. Should end the Garcia "era".)
Falcons: 3-13 (Matt Ryan and Michael Turner will be fun to watch at least.)
NFC West
*49ers: 9-7 (I don't know why I like them.)
Seahawks: 7-9 (Lame duck year for Holmgren and no running game.)
Cardinals: 6-10 (Same as last year- improving, but they're still the f-ing Cardinals.)
Rams: 5-11 (If Bulger stays healthy they can be respectable.)
2007 NFL Predictions
It's once again time to document my NFL predictions. It's stupid and no one is ever perfect. However, it's fun and also gives me proof to tell someone "I told you so!" if I'm right. Last year I was 4 out of 6 on AFC playoff teams (missed the Chargers/Ravens). As for the NFC, I was 4 out of 6 (missed the Eagles/Saints). I was dead on with a few teams (predicted the Chiefs would grab final wild card spot) but way off on others (predicted the Falcons would go 13-3 and win home field advantage...whoops!).
Over the years I've developed a "formula" as to how I make my predictions. Most of it is just based on the actual teams and how they are on paper. But there are several "facts" that happen EVERY year:
1. Approximately 2-3 teams who made the playoffs in each conference do not return the following year.
2. Approximately 1-2 teams in each conference who finished 6-10 or worse make the playoffs.
3. Some teams get better by staying the same- whether it's continuity, easier schedule, or returning injured players.
4. Some teams regress by staying the same (see 2006 Tampa Bay Buccaneers). Occasionally injuries play a part, but usually a team or two overacheived the year before and suddenly faces a much tougher schedule and didn't improve enough talent wise (or regressed).
So, with no further ado, here are my predictions (* for playoff teams):
AFC East
*Patriots: 11-5 (already starting year w/injuries and Moss questions, plus insane schedule)
Jets: 8-8 (overacheived last year, don't trust The Chad)
Bills: 6-10 (offense got better, defense really regressed w/FA losses)
Dolphins: 4-12 (Aging, but tough D, new offense & o-line issues- does not bode well)
AFC North
*Steelers: 10-6 (Big Ben is over the bike accident, strong D, easier schedule)
*Ravens: 9-7 (tough D, but did the offense actually improve w/McGahee?)
Bengals: 7-9 (O-line issues already, weak D)
Browns: 3-13 (need a complete overhaul on D, a year to season Quinn)
AFC South
*Colts: 11-5 (suffered way too many losses on D + Tarik Glenn, but still talented)
Texans: 8-8 (Sleeper team- improved offense, getting a lil better on D)
Jaguars: 8-8 (I have no idea what to expect from them- could shock the NFL this year)
Titans: 5-11 (Madden curse + issues on D + who's gonna run/catch the ball?)
AFC West (toughest division in AFC)
*Chargers: 13-3 (Norv is gonna work wonders with Rivers, D is just nasty)
*Broncos: 10-6 (Cutler will give them two more wins and they're on a mission from those two offseason deaths)
Chiefs: 6-10 (stayed about the same- for the worse, save for o-line losses)
Raiders: 5-11 (D was already decent, but playing under an actual pro offense w/a decent QB will make'em interesting)
NFC East
*Eagles: 11-5 (still class of division, but w/run D issues; need to stay healthy. Could slip big)
*Cowboys: 10-6 (lots of coaching turnover but lots of talent. Don't trust Wade or secondary; already injuries on D w/Newman and Ellis)
Redskins: 8-8 (healthy on D, easier schedule; no idea how offense will perform)
Giants: 6-10 (like the Jags, also damn near impossible to predict- could easily be 10-6)
NFC North
*Bears: 12-4 (Grossman will be better, still playing in a weak division)
Packers: 8-8 (could be a sleeper team)
Lions: 6-10 (offense is legit, D is not)
Vikings: 3-13 (Tavaris Jackson is NOT the answer at QB; nasty run D)
NFC South
*Saints: 11-5 (needed to get better on D, but didn't)
Panthers: 8-8 (no faith in Delhomme or Morgan staying healthy)
Buccanneers: 7-9 (they got a little better, can't be any worse than last year)
Falcons: 4-12 (those who think losing Vick will help forget how 2003 turned out)
NFC West
*Rams: 10-6 (if D gets better, watch out)
*49ers: 9-7 (loads of young talent on both sides of the ball, can it gel?)
Seahawks: 7-9 (could be way off on this)
Cardinals: 6-10 (improving, but they're still the f-ing Cardinals)